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이예은 아나운서 (00:24)
네, 안녕하십니까? 그러니까 차트는 답을 알고 있다. 존 볼린저과 함께하는 세션 저는 세션 모더레이터를 맡은한국경제.tv 앵커 이현입니다. 반갑습니다. 존 볼린저 볼린저 밴드의 창시자시죠. 존 볼린저의 인사부터 들어봐야.There, John, could you introduce yourself to the audience?I'm sorry.Could you introduce yourself to the audience?Hi, I'm John Bollinger. I'm the fellow who created Bollinger Bands a very long time ago, and I wish to tell you one thing before we get started.
I am not, in fact, dead everywhere I go, you know, people think that oh, these bands are everywhere, this person must have died long ago, but it's not true. I'm I'm here as. 네, 이렇게 좋은 불린저님의 소개를 들어봤는데요. 죽지 않고 이렇게 살아 계시다는 점을 강조해 주셨습니다. 오늘 차트의 시작부터 해서 다양한 내용들을 준비해 주셨는데요. 바로 만나보도록 하겠습니다.Should you introduce what Bollinge
r Band is?I think we should the. So we're going to talk about Bollinger Bands today, but before I get started, I want to talk about our goals, what we're going to try to achieve today. And so the idea is that we want to be able to find places on a chart where we can make a trade where the odds of our success are great and the amount we have to risk is relatively small in relation to the potential gain. So that's the sort of thing that we're going to talk about today.
So Bollinger Bands are actually a pretty simple tool. They're a type of trading band, and all trading bands do the same thing. Bollinger Bands and all trading bands define high and low on a relative basis. By definition, price
at the upper band is high and price at the lower band is low. That this is the basic function of all trading bands that you may think that this is not a sort of powerful idea, but it is a very powerful idea because using those relative definitions, we can find trading setups that meet our goals. So here are the formulas for for Bollinger Bands. The middle band is a simple moving average, a 20 day simple moving average. The upper band is that middle band +2 times the standard deviation of the same data that was used here in the moving average, and the lower band is the middle band less two times the stand the standard deviation of the same data that was used in the band. I only show you these
formulas so that you you understand what they are, but all of the mechanics of this are taken are done for you on the toss platform. So you don't have to know the formulas. I just think it's important to help, you know, to have them as background information.
So the the purpose of Bollinger Bands is really to help eliminate emotions from the trading process. It hit. They help you find a trading strategy that has a high chance of success and where the the potential losses are relatively small in relation to the potential gains.
The really important thing to note is that Bollinger Bands do not provide continuous advice. What we're going to look for is individual discreet places on the chart
where we want to take an action. And you may go many bars without finding such a setup. But when you find a setup, you will know what to do. You know, the, the fame, we will have a question and answer session at the end of of this talk. And you know, inevitably somebody will come over and we'll have a bar chart and they'll say, what do I do right here? And the answer is, I don't know. Because what you want to do is you want to wait until you find a setup and then you know what to do. But Bollinger Band, when it is used with indicators, it's much more effective.So we want to know what kind of indicators that you look at.Well, I've created 2 Bollinger Band indicators that are based on the ban
ds themselves. But in addition to those, I like the traditional technical indicators like RSI and MACDI find these very, very helpful.
RSI is an overbought, oversold measure, MACD as a trend indicator and such. But today we're going to talk about the two indicators that are derived directly from Bollinger Bands, and those are are percent B, which you find here, and bandwidth, which you find here. So the, you know, the purpose of these indicators is very straightforward. Percent B tells us how wide. I'm sorry, percent B tells us where we are in relation to the Bollinger Bands. So when percent B = 1, oops. When percent B equals once, it means prices at the upper band, and when percent B = 0,
it means prices at the lower band. In addition, if percent B is .5, it means the prices at the middle trading band, and when percent B is above 1, it means prices above the upper band, and when percent B is below 1 it means prices below the lower band. Now this. You know, this may seem like a very simple definition, but like the rest of this, there's a lot of power in this definition because using this allows us to build rigorous trading approaches based on the Bollinger Bands without using involving our emotions.
So the second indicator is bandwidth, and this tells us how wide the Bollinger Bands are. You see an image here where the Bollinger Bands are very narrow. We call this a squeeze a
nd we see the A position where the Bollinger Bands are very wide. We call this a bulge. So there's a fun thing about this. A squeeze, which we have here is a forecast for higher volatility and a bulge, which we see here, is a forecast for lower volatility. But a really fun way of thinking about this is that a squeeze is where trends are born and a bulge is where trends go to die. And we'll see some, we'll see some charts examples of this. But before that, we can definitely use the Bollinger Band and the indicators that you explained the percent B and the bandwidth in the TOS WTS system, right?Yeah.We have a demonstration here that all of the Bollinger Bands, percent B and bandwidth have all
been programmed on the TOS platform for you.So we can you can see how to.There we go.볼린저 밴드를 설정해서 직접 토스 플랫폼에서 사용을 하실 수가 있습니다. 이동평균 기간도 조정을 하실 수가 있고요. 표준편차도 설정이 가능합니다. 뿐만 아니라 여기서 색깔도 조정을 하실 수가 있는데요.So, John, in the States, the color scheme is different.In Korea, the red means going up and blue means going down.But it's the opposite in the States, right?It is the opposite in the States. So when I draw Bollinger Bands on my own charts, I use blue for the middle line for the indication of trend.
I use red for the upper line, which is overbought and an area where I want to consider whether the trend is ending, and green for the lower line, which is oversold, which is where I want to consider the
the opposite of of purchase. So my color scheme is different from yours, but feel free to color it any way you like that makes sense to you. Right. So we went through how the Bollinger Band system works in the toss platform. Now you kind of explained about squeeze and bulge. Now we want to know more about the patterns.
Can you explain more about the patterns? I can.Go ahead.I'm sorry you got to have it. You know, it's we take ourselves too seriously.
So we're going to actually going to talk today about 3 different Bollinger band patterns. The first one is squeeze and bulge. You see those on the left hand side here. And then we're going to talk about W bottoms and M tops and then we're goi
ng to talk about two bar reversals. And in all of these, the idea is going to be defined places on the chart where the odds of success are in our favor. So the first thing we're going to talk about is a squeezed the the squeeze is a period of very low volatility. I define it as the lowest value of bandwidth in the past 125 periods. Now for me, periods are daily bars because those are the charts that I've learned to use when I came into the business. But for you, they could be 5 minute bars, hourly bars, daily bars, weekly bars. It it doesn't really matter. It's the rules are all the same, the patterns are all the same the time. It's just the time frame that changes. So a squeeze is for me th
e lowest value of bandwidth in the past 125 days and it's a forecast for increased volatility. Like to say that it's the beginning of something. So and a bulge is exactly the opposite. A bulge is the highest value of bandwidth in the past 125 bars and it's a forecast for decreased volatility and it marks the end of something. I know I said it before, but it's really an important concept. A squeeze is the birth place of trends. It's where trends begin, and a bulge is where trends go to die. So here, here's a really nice example. We have a squeeze here. You can see a very low value of bandwidth down here. It occurs right here. And then we get a, a breakout, a big expansion of volatility until
we come up here and we start trading into a trading range where we get a peak in bandwidth and a turn down in bandwidth. So that's a, a, a basic cycle of the birth of a trend into the death of a trend. Now it's really important a a bulge marks the end of that trend, but it does not necessarily mark the beginning of a trend in the opposite direction. It could just mark beginning of a consolidation pattern that leads to a continuation of the trend. What it means to me is just that this phase of the trend is at an end. And you you'll see some more more examples as we go along. And you know, here's a a better view of this. Now notice we have the squeeze here, this big bar that emerges out of the
squeeze. We call this a confirmation day. And this is the actual signal to take a position when we start, when you start to see this type of price action. Oh, they're sending me a message. They're saying I'm a bad boy. I am not holding the mic up to the as high as I should. You see, I have minders back there. It's good thing for you, huh? So here again we see the we see the squeeze, the indication of the squeeze, and the indication of the bulge. Now note that, you know, we wait for bandwidth to actually turn up to confirm the squeeze, and we wait for bandwidth actually to turn down to confirm the bulge. So here's another example of a squeeze, the birth of a trend. We see the squeeze right h
ere. You see the squeeze right there and I, I really like this because you see that it illustrates the idea that the squeeze is the birth of a trend. And you here's the bulge that marks the end of that trend, but it just leads to a little consolidation and then the trend resumes. So a lot of people mistakenly think that a bulge is automatically a reversal, right?
It could be, sometimes it is, but sometimes it just leads to a consolidation of the prior move. So this squeeze, the important thing is that sort of two legged nature of this trend. So some more squeeze and bulge examples here we have this downtrend in place and here's the bulge turning down, marking the end of that downtrend and t
he beginning of a long consolidation. It's only after the consolidation completes that we get a new trend. And again, when we get this new trend, when bandwidth turns down, it marks the end of that trend and the beginning of a consolidation. So downtrend, uptrend, there's the bulge that marks the end of the downtrend and there's the bulge that marks the end of the uptrend.
And then here's one more example of a squeeze. I happen to love squeeze plays. So we have a a squeeze here, pronounced downtrend. There's the indication of the squeeze. Here's the indication of the bulge marking the end of the downtrend. And of course, here's the zoom and they'll let you see that a little bit easier. Ther
e's the beginning of the trend and the end of the trend. So it's really important in all these Bollinger Band setups to wait for confirmation.
If it's a buy setup, you want to wait. For an up bar before you enter and if it's a cell set up, you want to wait for a down bar before you enter. So the exit depends on your time frame and your risk for say you have AW bottom in place and you've you've entered a trade. The first target for that trade is always the middle band and the the 2nd and real target is a trip to the upper band. Now it's not necessarily that that means that that move will be over it. Those are just the first two price targets of AW bottom just like well, we haven't really tal
ked about W bottoms yet. So there we go. But I I will in a, in, in a moment. So this bottom point is really important. It says use risk control. So if the pattern doesn't work, get out and wait for another pattern. If you you know, if you have a buy set up and you get a confirmation bar and you get into the trade and it just goes sideways, it's time to walk away and find another setup. We don't want, you know, to stay in these failed setups too long because what what often will happen is that trade could then turn against us. So unless the trade starts to work and, and work, you know, fairly quickly, we just want to get out and move to the next setup. We have a large number of, we have a lar
ge number of securities we can trade in both the Korean market and the US market, other markets that you might want to trade. So there's always plenty of setups to move on to the next one. You don't have to try to force something when it shouldn't be forced. So we're going to talk about W bottoms now.
This is my one of my favorite Bollinger Band patterns. It was the one of the first ones that I started to trade. It's a classic pattern that that appears when a stock shifts from a downtrend to an uptrend. So we go, we go from a decline, we go from a decline to a slight rebound to a second decline and then an upward reversal. We call the first decline the momentum low. This is where, you know,
the price comes down very fast and very sharply and we get outside the lower Bollinger band. We bounce back in and then we make a final new low. We call that the price low. So we get a momentum blow on the left side of the West and then a price low on the right side of the West. So the ideal W bottom is a new absolute low that is not a new low in relation to the Bollinger Bands. And I'll show you one of these in just a moment. So for the ideal pattern, percent B should be higher on the right hand side of the pattern and the peak in bandwidth should occur on the left hand side of the West. So here's here's a really nice little W pattern. We come down, we make a low outside the lower band, we
immediately reverse back in, we make a little recovery high and then a secondary low completing the W pattern so you can see W and those. That is the the sort of bread and butter trade with Bollinger bands. Note down here that percent B is higher on the right hand side of the formation and that bandwidth turns down as the downtrend ends. And so we call this a percent B divergent where price comes down makes a new low inside the bands and we get this increasing value of percent B across the formation. So we see the same pattern at tops. We call those M tops. OK. Oh, and by the way, Bollinger, if you click one more, there's a focus version of it.OK, yeah, nice. There you go. So they they did
a really nice job preparing these slides for me with the all these zooms and stuff.
So here's a classic M top. We come up and we make a high outside the lower, the upper band, we pull back, we make a secondary high and fail. And so this is the confirmation day, the entry day for this decline. That pattern is immediately followed by AW bottom. So we come down, we make a a new low inside the bands, and this time we have a higher value of percent B, whereas at the top we had a lower value of percent B, right? And then in sequence we get a third M and this is really a beautiful M because we actually make a new high in price, right, and then fail. But we have the same pattern here, lower pattern
in terms of percent B. 잠깐 정리를 한번 하고 가도록 계속.Just went through so you explained about the West bottom and.바닥 패턴을 설명해 주셨는데 바닥 패턴 같은 경우에는 주식이 하락에서 상승 전환할 때 대표적으로 나타나는 유형이고, 이 더블유형 바닥 패턴 같은 경우에는 뒤집힌 형태로 m 형 천장 패턴을 뛸 수도 있다는 점을 강조를 해주셨습니다. 다시 마이크를 넘겨서 볼린저에게 이번에는 이 봉 반전 패턴에 대한 이야기를 들어보도록 할게요. 그래서 퀴즈 덕 치와스.The two bar rehearsal now.So this is actually my favorite trade with Bollinger Bands. It's nice because you feel like a thief when when these happen. They're so easy, they're so clear and the the amount that you risk is relatively small versus a much larger potential game. Very simple trade. You'll see them again and again after you go back to your terminals tomorrow.
So both bars have to be grea
ter than average range. So, you know, we want really big bars that stand out, clearly stand out in relation to the bars that preceded them. And we want the first one to close outside of the upper Bollinger band and the second one to close inside the Bollinger band. So it's an immediate reversal. Here's a a classic example, very strong rally outside the upper band, immediately back inside the upper band and it forms the right hand, the left hand side of an M top. And then here's the same sort of thing again, very strong rally into the highs and then you get this expansion bar to the downside and a nice trade to the downside. The thing I like about these is that you put your stop just above th
e prior bar, right? Just above the prior bar here, so you know when you're wrong. Look here, you can see there was a failed 2 bar reversal here. We rallied, we closed back. We didn't actually get back inside the band right? We just nicked it, right? So if we had thought, well it's a 2 bar reversal anyway, we're going to trade it, then our stop we would get taken out on the next bar. So we would have had a relatively small loss in pursuit of a larger gain. So this is sort of the the classic 2 bar reversal come down in a in a very narrow trading range. You actually see that this is a squeeze here come down to a very narrow trading range, break the lower band and immediately and strongly revers
e back into the bands, right? This has a special name. This is called the head fake, right? Because you've had a squeeze and the initial move is in the wrong direction, right? So this is probably one of the highest percentage 6 in terms of percent success Bollinger Band trades. So 2 bar reversals can be either entries or exits. If you're in a long trade and you get a 2 bar reversal at the upper band, you can either cut your position in half or something, scale back, or just get out. It can be taken either as an exit signal or as a signal to take some money off the table. So they can either be entry points, or if they go against an existing position, they're an exit point. So you told us abou
t the patterns and the two bar reversal pattern too. And I know that you are in the market for over 30 years and throughout that years you probably learned a lot of lessons.
So we want to ask you what are those lessons that you learned? Could you share it with us? I can share a few and I'll share more in the in the questions and answers afterwards. When, where, when yen and I have a conversation with you. But for here, here are a couple one. So I, I try to tell a joke. I know it's hard with the translators and all, but I, I think you, I think it works.
So in Chicago, which is where they trade futures, they have, they used to have futures pits where everybody would get together and, and, an
d, and trade very actively, very loudly and, and such. And they say that there's a God with a small G that rules the pits and that God has just two rules. You are allowed to buy the very bottom tick once in your lifetime, and you were allowed to sell the very top tick once in your lifetime. Of course, you're free to do the opposite as often as you would like. Yes. No. Funny not. Oh well, you think about it. You know, 2 days from now you'll, you'll, you'll get a chuckle. So everybody would like to buy the bottom tick. Everybody would like to sell the top tick. But I want you to wait for confirmation. I want you to wait for price to start moving in the direction of the trade that you want to t
ake so that the odds of your success are improved. You'll make a little bit less money on that even trade, but overall your win percentage will improve. How am I doing for time time? I think we're we're on time.OK. So it, it's really, it's really important this this odds of success. If you think about it, there are only two ways you can improve your trading performance. Number one, you can have more trades that are winners and less trades that are losers. So say if you're if you're making 60% winning trades and 40% losing trades, you can try to push it up to 65% winning trades and 35% losing trades. You'd be amazed how much that small improvement helps.
Other dimension you can work on is th
e size of your winners versus the size of your losers. So by using stops and waiting for confirmation, you can increase the relative size of the winning trades versus the relative size of your losing trades. So those are the two factors behind trading success. If you work on each of those individually, you'll be able to improve your trading and improve it a lot so. So I like to use stops. We don't have time today to discuss the various methods. We don't have time today to discuss the various methods of of stops. I, I like chandelier stops, which is a sort of progressive trailing stop. It hangs from the highest high in a long trade or it's above the lowest low in a in a short trade. But by al
l means do use stops if you can.
And progressive stops, I think are the best sort of stops to use. And the whole idea here is you want to establish an exit point if the trade goes wrong. Let's assume that you've you've you've just come down, you found a 2 bar reversal at the lower band, all right. And you know, you've got a nice verse of your back inside. You say, OK, I'll take a long trade here. I'm hoping to get to the upper band and it doesn't work out right. It fails and prices starts to drop. Where do you get out? Where do you know you're wrong? You have to decide that beforehand. Otherwise you're going to 2nd get yourself and move yourself into an emotional hell, right? So it's really
important to establish a point where you know the trade is a bad trade and you need to cover it and move on to the next trade. The next good setup with the odds of success will be in your favor and the amount ventured will be less than the potential game.
